Good or Bad – Hard to Say

There is an old Chinese fairy tale about a peasant.

One night his horse escapes. Neighbors express sympathy, and the peasant states: “Good or bad? It's hard to say.”

A few days later, the horse returns together with a pack of wild horses. Neighbors discuss how lucky the peasant is. The peasant says: “Good or bad? It's hard to say.”

Son of the peasant chooses the best horse from the new herd to brake it in. But the horse throws him off the saddle and the peasant's son breaks his leg. Neighbors express remorse. Meanwhile, the peasant says: “Good or bad? It's hard to say.”

Later, the army is passing the peasant's house, looking for new conscripts. When they find peasant's son with a broken leg, they decide he'd be of no use in the army. Neighbors congratulate the peasant on good luck. The peasant says...: “Good or bad? It's hard to say.”

Attitudes and decisions

Things by themselves are simply there. The context is given by people. Everything depends on people's attitudes and their perspective – if Latvians think Estonians are faring better, it is so,... because Latvians think Estonians are faring better.

Attitude in crisis situations is what determines the quality of decisions and whether any decisions are taken at all.

“Decisions are the core currency of the business world. Every success, every failure, every opportunity used or missed comes from a decision taken by someone – or not accepted,”

Paul Rogers and Marcia W. Blenko told Harward Business Review in 2006.

Decisions taken by organisations in the public and non-governmental sector have the same effect.

Decisions and communication

Today, high-quality communication is important to succeed. It is certainly better if some decision is taken in a crisis than if no decisions are taken at all. As has already been clarified, the decisions in themselves simply are. They just exist.

But, for example, at the outset of current pandemic, was it good or bad not to order Pfizer's vaccines for Latvia? Or – dynamically changing the government's position on restrictions in the country – is it a good or a bad decision? Did we need another pandemic bulletin, another bureau on top of the existent conglomerate? Hard to say. Is Latvia's response to Covid generally good or bad? Hard to say.

The challenge of communication in crises and everyday situations is basically one and simple: to introduce clarity, to clarify decisions, provided the decisions are taken. The task is simple, but certainly not easy. There's always lack of time in the crisis, so decisions must be swift, clear, communicated quickly, accurately. During crises we must get from point A to point B via the straightest line. Because there's no time.

In the meantime, only four things are perfectly clear: in the Covid crisis, light and heavy decisions are taken, but communication on them is rubbish; there are fewer and fewer leaders who are able to manage and explain their actions, and new ones are not visible either among politicians or professionals; there are always several paths to take; attitudes and trust issues polarising the society more with each day leading to less effective and less supported decisions.

For example. No one, including the Ministry of Health and the government, has a special desire to spend time explaining their decisions or decisions taken during the Covid crisis. It seemed for a moment there was hope this function would be performed by the Vaccination Bureau. It was not meant to be.

Communication and outcome

Leaders must take a stand and speak up in a crisis. There are no responsible departments and offices. Departments and offices help with the execution. But leaders must communicate themselves, or we quickly return to the old ailments - when there's good news, only then the leaders talk.

Time will tell who gets the final say, who comes out unscratched on the other side, though chances are – no one. So will Latvia do well in handling the pandemic, how we will measure success? Will it be good or bad? Hard to say.